ANALYSIS
Analysis

Ethereum Price Levels and Outlook for the Second Half of 2026

Ethereum enters the second half of 2026 with a changed supply picture, a growing rollup ecosystem and persistent questions about how the market will price ETH as activity migrates to L2. Here is the structural picture.

Lena Kovacs June 30, 2026 4 min read

Key takeaways

Ethereum’s supply dynamics shifted significantly after the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which introduced blobs and dramatically reduced the amount of ETH burned from rollup activity.
Several levels are widely referenced by Ethereum market participants.
Ethereum’s roadmap post-Dencun includes upgrades aimed at scaling blobs further (Pectra, Fusaka) and improving the experience of solo validators and stakers.
Our model-based bear, base and bull scenarios for ETH across 24h, 7d, 30d, 90d, 1y, 2027, 2028 and 2030 are on the Ethereum price page.

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Not financial advice. This article discusses prices and model-based scenarios for information and education only. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and read our disclaimer.

YMYL notice: This article discusses price levels and market structure. It is educational analysis, not financial advice. Ethereum is highly volatile. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.

The supply picture post-Dencun

Ethereum’s supply dynamics shifted significantly after the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which introduced blobs and dramatically reduced the amount of ETH burned from rollup activity. Pre-Dencun, heavy rollup usage generated meaningful fee burn on mainnet as rollups posted calldata. Post-Dencun, that data moves into blobs with their own lower fee market, and less ETH is burned per unit of ecosystem activity.

Net ETH supply (issuance minus burn) has trended slightly inflationary over most of 2025 and into 2026, which contrasts with the “ultrasound money” narrative that prevailed in 2022 and 2023 when post-Merge burn briefly exceeded issuance. The live ETH market data on our Ethereum price page is sourced from CoinGecko; on-chain supply data is tracked at ultrasound.money.

Key technical and on-chain reference levels

Several levels are widely referenced by Ethereum market participants. We describe them here as context, not as predictions:

Realised price. Glassnode’s realised price for ETH — the average price at which all ETH last moved — provides a proxy for aggregate cost basis. Markets trading above it have historically been bullish regimes; below it, bearish.
2022 bear market lows. The lows reached during the 2022 bear market (roughly $880–$1,100) represent strong historical accumulation zones and are watched as long-term structural support.
2021 ATH and its derivatives. The $4,800 all-time high set in November 2021 remains a widely-watched resistance level on any sustained rally. Half of that ($2,400) has acted as a pivot zone in the current cycle.

For a 7-day and 30-day time horizon, ETH price is primarily driven by sentiment, overall crypto market direction, and near-term catalysts (major protocol upgrades, large staking events, ETF flows). For a 90-day horizon, on-chain staking dynamics, developer activity metrics, and macro risk sentiment dominate. For 1-year and beyond, the narrative around Ethereum’s role as a settlement layer for rollups, and how the market values that role, matters most.

The roadmap as a price factor

Ethereum’s roadmap post-Dencun includes upgrades aimed at scaling blobs further (Pectra, Fusaka) and improving the experience of solo validators and stakers. Each major upgrade has historically been accompanied by an increase in developer attention and often a price premium in the months leading up to activation, though not all upgrades have produced durable gains.

The staking rate (ETH staked as a percentage of total supply) has continued to rise and is now above 28%, which reduces the liquid float. Whether this is bullish for price (reduced supply available to sell) or bearish (lock-up means forced sellers eventually emerge) is a genuine point of debate in the research community.

Where the scenarios sit

Our model-based bear, base and bull scenarios for ETH across 24h, 7d, 30d, 90d, 1y, 2027, 2028 and 2030 are on the Ethereum price page. They use price history, volatility, and market regime as inputs and are generated deterministically. They are not forecasts or recommendations; they are structured scenarios that show what a range of outcomes looks like given current parameters. Model-based scenarios. Not financial advice.

Read how to interpret them in our guide to reading predictions, and the full technical approach is in our methodology.

Frequently asked questions

Is ETH inflationary or deflationary right now?

As of mid-2026, net ETH issuance is slightly above burn, making ETH modestly inflationary on most weeks. This is a change from the deflation seen in 2022-2023. The exact balance varies with network activity. Track it at ultrasound.money.

Does the Ethereum roadmap affect the price?

Major upgrades have historically been associated with increased market attention and sometimes a price premium. But upgrades are technical events; the market does not always price them efficiently or in advance. Roadmap changes can also introduce short-term uncertainty.

What is Ethereum’s realised price?

Realised price is the aggregate cost basis of all ETH, calculated as the value of each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain. It is a widely used on-chain metric published by Glassnode. Price trading above realised price generally indicates a profitable market; below it, an underwater one.

How does increasing staking affect ETH price?

More ETH staked reduces the liquid supply available to sell. This is often framed as bullish for price, but staked ETH must eventually be unstaked to be sold, and withdrawal queues can create concentrated selling pressure. The net effect on price depends on the pace of staking versus unstaking and overall demand.

Sources

Ultrasound.money — ETH issuance, burn and supply data
Glassnode — on-chain analytics including ETH realised price
TheWeal: Live ETH price page with model-based scenarios
TheWeal: Prediction methodology
TheWeal: How to read a prediction guide

Topics analysis ethereum layer-2 price-levels

General information only — not investment advice. TheWeal is an independent crypto data and education publisher. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Crypto carries risk, including the possible loss of principal. Read our disclaimer and editorial guidelines.

Written by Lena Kovacs

CONFIRM WITH AUTHOR — Lena Kovacs is the Protocols Editor at TheWeal, covering the technology layer: consensus, scaling, upgrades, layer-2s and the engineering decisions that quietly shape what a network can become. She has written about crypto protocols since 2015, close enough to the research to read a specification and detached enough to explain why it matters to someone who will never run a node. From Berlin, Lena follows the long arcs — proof-of-stake transitions, rollup roadmaps, data-availability and the trade-offs between decentralisation, security and throughput that no upgrade escapes. Her instinct is to separate genuine technical progress from narrative, and to be honest about timelines in an industry that routinely promises next quarter what arrives in three years. Lena's coverage assumes readers are smart but busy: she does the reading so they do not have to, and she flags clearly when something is still experimental. She holds that good protocol journalism ages well because it explains mechanisms, not hype.