Five charts that explain where the crypto market is right now. BTC dominance, ETH staking yield, stablecoin supply, L2 fees, and ETF flows — the five metrics that matter for cross-portfolio decisions over weekly horizons. We pulled the data, contextualized each, and noted what would change the picture.
Key takeaways
- BTC dominance: 60.3% — rotation away from alts continues.
- ETH staking yield: 2.91% — first sub-3% reading since 2023.
- Stablecoin supply: $190B — fresh ATH, fuel sitting on the side.
- L2 median fee: $0.012-0.024 — plateaued; next leg requires danksharding.
- BTC ETF weekly flow: +$148M — first positive week in eight.
Chart 1 — Bitcoin dominance
BTC dominance rose from 56% in early May to 60.3% this week. The 4-point shift represents roughly $80B of relative value rotated from altcoins to Bitcoin. The move was alt-weakness-driven, not BTC-strength-driven: BTC up 3% over the period, top-100 altcoin index down 12%.
Historical reference: dominance has not held above 60% since November 2023. When it does, the typical pattern is 6–18 months until an altcoin cycle bottom. We are early in that window.
Reverses when: stablecoin supply expansion, ETH/BTC inflection, L2 fee revenue acceleration. None of those flashing yet.
Chart 2 — Ethereum staking yield
Aggregate yield slipped below 3% — to 2.91% — for the first time since the Shanghai upgrade in 2023. Mechanical driver: validator count climbing (~1.07M), MEV compression, execution-layer tip revenue softening post-EIP-4844.
Effect: the “stake ETH for risk-free 4%” thesis no longer applies. LRT yields (4–6% incl. EigenLayer AVS) become more attractive, with their own risks. Pendle PT-eETH June expiry now prices implied yield of 2.6% — market expects further compression.
Chart 3 — Stablecoin supply
Total stablecoin market cap hit $190B this week — a fresh all-time high. USDT $118B (62%), USDC $43B (23%), other $29B (15%).
Growth has been remarkably smooth: $122B → $190B over 18 months, almost linear. Tron and Solana are the fastest-growing chains for stablecoin usage. Stablecoin-to-crypto-market-cap ratio sits at 18% — near the high end of historical range. Demand fuel is present; rotation timing is the open question.
| Metric | Reading | YoY | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC dominance | 60.3% | +4.2pp | Rotation to BTC |
| ETH staking yield | 2.91% | -0.49pp | Compression |
| Stablecoin supply | $190.4B | +36% | Growth |
| L2 median fee | $0.018 | flat | Plateau |
| BTC ETF weekly flow | +$148M | vs neg | Reversal |
Chart 4 — L2 fees
L2 transaction fees plateaued after the EIP-4844-driven compression. Median tx fee: Base $0.012, Arbitrum $0.018, Optimism $0.016, zkSync $0.024. The next significant compression requires full danksharding — targeted for Q3 2027.
L2 fee revenue to Ethereum L1 (via blob posting): ~$11M/month, down 70% from the 2024 peak. Lower revenue does not mean less activity — it means the same activity costs less. Users won; the L1 token’s cash-flow case from L2 traffic shrank.
Chart 5 — BTC ETF flows
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive last week — $148M net across 11 products. First positive week in eight. Composition: BlackRock’s IBIT took $96M (65%), with the rest spread across Fidelity, Bitwise, Ark, Franklin, VanEck. The breadth is healthier than a one-week IBIT push alone would be.
Cumulative AUM across spot BTC ETFs: $58B (IBIT alone at $24B). Daily flows turned positive on five of five trading days in the period — a streak last seen in mid-March.
“Five metrics, one read: BTC is taking share, alts are quiet, demand-fuel (stablecoins) is sitting on the side, and the institutional bid (ETFs) just woke up after an eight-week nap.”
What it adds up to
The macro setup: BTC-favourable rotation continues; alts await a catalyst (stablecoin rotation, L2 acceleration, or an ETH-specific event); ETH staking economics compress, narrowing the structural “stake for yield” thesis; institutional demand for BTC reset positive after a soft patch.
For position-sizing: this is a setup where BTC-heavy portfolios continue to outperform until one of the three reversal signals (stablecoin expansion, ETH/BTC inflection, L2 fee acceleration) flips. None has yet.
Where to dig deeper
- BTC: /coins/bitcoin/
- ETH: /coins/ethereum/
- SOL: /coins/solana/
- Model methodology: /methodology/
Why this matters
Five-chart roundups exist to compress a week’s data into the smallest readable form. None of these metrics on their own is decisive. Together, they sketch the regime. The regime today is BTC-favourable, alt-cautious, with demand-side fuel building.