Key Insights
- HBAR dropped nearly 20% in a week, between July 23 and August 3.
- Bearish technical indicators like the falling MACD, RSI, and weak CMF indicate that investors should be ready for more volatility.
- Despite the pullback, TVL growth, real-world adoption, and ETF news could be saving graces for this cryptocurrency.
Hedera’s native HBAR cryptocurrency is facing fresh pressure from the bears, after declining over the last ten days. This comes amid the general market struggle with weak sentiment and HBAR’s mounting signs of a bearish trend.
The recent drop below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has placed traders on high alert. Can HBAR make a surprise comeback?
HBAR Drops Below 20-Day EMA as Sell Pressure Grows
HBAR recently fell below the 20-day EMA on 1 August as the general crypto market slipped below major supports.
This change in short-term trend appears to have shifted the outlook for the cryptocurrency into bearish territory. As of writing, the EMA now sits at $0.2446. On the other hand, HBAR has traded slightly lower at $0.2491.
The 20-day EMA is especially important in this case because it helps to gauge short-term market movements. When an asset breaks below this moving average, it usually indicates that selling is stronger and support is weaker.
This break could open the doors for the cryptocurrency to test the $0.22 zone. Otherwise, it can even lower if the supports fail further.
What Do the Technicals Say?
For starters, it is important to note that the MACD Momentum Is Turning Against HBAR. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (or the MACD) line has crossed below the signal line.
Also, the red histogram bars are getting longer. This showed a decline in buying pressure and could be an indicator that the bears are gaining strength.
In the same vein, the RSI is showing oversold conditions, but isn’t yet showing signs of a reversal. The lack of a reversal is a worrying sign. However, it historically means that HBAR may be nearing a bounce when enough profit has been taken off the market.
However, it is too early to make any calls for a full reversal. Also, traders should wait for confirmation before investing. More indicators include the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which has now turned negative.
In essence, there is a lack of support from institutions or major players. This means that without the big players backing a price rebound, HBAR may struggle further in the short term.
HBAR ETF Hype Could Change the Narrative
While short-term signals look bearish, there could be some reason for optimism over the long term. Over the last few months, HBAR has emerged as one of the few altcoins with serious institutional interest.
There are currently two filings on the SEC’s desk for Hedera ETFs. These are both actively under review by issuers like Canary Capital. If either of these gets approved, it could open the floodgates for new capital. This could further push HBAR well above its current price levels.
Analysts like Merlijn the Trader believe that HBAR is “perfectly positioned” for growth. Other analysts also believe the token could surge to as high as $1.10 in a good bullish scenario.
For that to happen, support near $0.155 needs to hold, and resistance around $0.517 must break. TVL on the Hedera network is also growing. The Hedera network’s TVL jumped nearly 10% in the past 24 hours. According to DefiLlama, it now stands at $129 million.
More than mere charts, HBAR is also gaining traction on other fronts. The Australian government recently started testing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on Hedera’s blockchain.
Project Acacia, which also includes partners from the UAE, is now setting Hedera up for strong enterprise use. This level of adoption goes beyond speculation. It shows that HBAR is being used for meaningful applications in finance and in governance.
