Key Insights
- August and September are historically Bitcoin’s worst months, with losses in 8 of the past 12 years.
- BTC ended July with a record monthly close at $115,800, but early August shows signs of cooling off.
- Post-halving years saw substantial August gains, which means that this August “might” be the exception..
Bitcoin price has entered August with a cloud of uncertainty hanging over it. Historically, this month has been known for its weakness in terms of BTC’s performance.
Data shows that BTC has dropped in August in 8 of the last 12 years. That means that percentage-wise, this gives it a 67% chance of decline over the next 30 days. Not every August follows the same market trend.
Post-halving years over the last decade have seen Bitcoin defy expectations and post strong double-digit gains. As such, analysts are watching to see which trend wins because the current year is a post-halving year.
Bitcoin Price History of Gains and Pains
Bitcoin price had an impressive July. The asset closed the month at $115,800, which marked its highest monthly close ever. According to data from TradingView, this move came despite some end-of-month volatility caused by US politics and general market corrections.
BTC gained 8.13% in July, which aligns it with historical performance. However, that strength doesn’t seem to be carrying into August. The price opened the month slightly lower, with Bitcoin now trading at a substantial loss according to CoinMarketCap.
Historically, August has produced Bitcoin price losses of up to 20%. It has provided an average return of just 1.61% and a median return of -7.49%. This means that the odds are stacked against the cryptocurrency.
BTC Support Zones to Watch
Analysts generally noted that if the BTC dropped below $115,000, it would likely test lower support levels. 10x Research’s Markus Thielen even mentioned that BTC could revisit $112,000. Otherwise, it could dip as low as $106,000–$110,000.
As of writing, Bitcoin price has lost this $115,000 zone and is now trading at around $113,000. These predictions sound bearish. However, it could also be a great entry point for the asset.
Analysts say this setup offers a short-term buying opportunity, especially for those looking to get into Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs. Some traders argue that Bitcoin is preparing for a bullish continuation.
Analyst Mags noted that the dip to $115,000 looks like a bullish retest of the neckline. Simply put, BTC may reclaim this price level over the next few days. A push towards $172,000 could still be feasible in the coming weeks.
Why August Isn’t Always Bearish for Bitcoin Price
Despite its poor track record, August hasn’t always been a disaster. During past post-halving cycles, Bitcoin price soared in August, as shown by data from LookOnChain and Coinglass.
This means that the pattern could hold once again this year. Many crypto investors believe that halvings create bullish pressure on the Bitcoin price. These often lead to strong rallies in the following months, and August might not be so bad after all.
So far, BTC is trading around $113,800 and is still within the $115,000–$121,000 range. That means the breakout (or breakdown) has yet to materialise fully.
Bitcoin Bulls Still See Upside
Despite the bearish outlook on the market, well-known trader Michaël van de Poppe is optimistic. He says the recent correction might be part of an accumulation phase across the market. That could be seen before the Bitcoin price resumes its run.
“Perhaps August is a month of stabilisation,” van de Poppe wrote on X, “and we’ll go back up later in the month for Altcoins and Bitcoin.”
Still, the clouds look grey because even the Bitcoin ETFs recently saw a bit of rain. For instance, the spot Bitcoin ETF sector recorded $812 million in outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC lost $331 million in one day, according to Farside Investors.
These trends show investor sentiment very clearly. The outflows indicate some caution creeping in, possibly due to seasonal trends and the uncertainty across most of the world. Overall, Bitcoin’s performance over the rest of the month remains to be seen.
