Key Insights:
- The SEC has delayed its decision on the Grayscale Solana ETF until October 10.
- Analysts predict a 90% chance of Solana ETF approval, meaning investor optimism is still strong.
- Solana’s price sits near $175, with $205 as the most critical breakout level.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again backed off its decision on the Grayscale Solana ETF. This latest delay applies to the proposed conversion of Grayscale’s Solana Trust into an ETF. It is now set for a ruling on October 10.
The delay was part of several similar setbacks for other ETF applications. This included Truth Social’s Bitcoin ETF and Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF..
SEC Continues to Delay Solana ETF and Other Altcoin Proposals
Grayscale first submitted its Solana Trust conversion proposal in February. Since then, the SEC has taken full advantage of its legal leeway.
It has used the maximum number of extensions permitted under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. According to filings, the Commission needs more time to “consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein.”
This pattern didn’t affect Solana ETF alone. The SEC recently delayed a similar multicoin ETF. This was followed by the freezing of approval for Bitwise’s 10 Crypto Index ETF.
These reversals show the SEC is moving slowly on anything involving altcoins. That is happening even with a new administration and a crypto-friendlier tone.
Solana ETF Approval Odds Are Still High
Despite the repeated delays, analysts believe the SEC is leaning toward an eventual approval. In fact, Polymarket data shows more than a 99% chance that the Solana ETF will be approved by year-end.
Independent analysts even set this probability higher, around 90%. This calculation is based on the rise in institutional interest and the SEC’s cautious tone.
This confidence level has fueled bullish sentiment around Solana. It has continued to gain ground in both adoption and market cap. TradingView data shows Solana’s 24-hour trading volume is over $5.93 billion. Also, it accounts for nearly 3% of the total crypto market.
Solana’s Technical Setup: Eyes on $205
Technical analysts are also watching Solana’s price. According to trader Crypto Tony, the $205 level is critical to watch. If SOL reclaims that point, it could trigger what he calls a “next level pump” and drive prices much higher.
Currently, Solana is trading near $175, a region that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support zone could be a springboard, especially if Solana ETF hype returns and grows.
However, resistance still looms around $219.84, and failure to break past $205 could mean a bearish reversal.
Trump-Linked ETFs Add Political Drama
The delay of Grayscale’s Solana ETF isn’t the only headline-grabber. The SEC also postponed its decision on the Truth Social Bitcoin ETF, which has ties to US President Donald Trump.
This ETF was first submitted in June, and the SEC has now set a new deadline of September 18 for it. This Trump-themed crypto push includes more ETFs in development, many of which focus on Bitcoin or Dogecoin.
These may be politically charged. However, they show how mainstream crypto exposure is becoming across various sectors, including media and politics.
Why the SEC Keeps Delaying ETFs
So why is the SEC dragging its feet? Experts say the Commission isn’t against crypto ETFs per se. Instead, it’s trying to build a stronger foundation in terms of regulation, before opening the floodgates.
The SEC, stretching its deadlines, is likely attempting to avoid rushing into decisions. This could trigger a messy domino effect. The agency has even approved parts of some crypto ETF proposals, only to pause full approval soon afterward.
This mix of speed and hesitation confirms the SEC’s strategy of slow adoption rather than outright rejection. Solana is at a crossroads between its price breakout levels and the incoming ETF decisions.