Matt Hougan’s latest long-term bitcoin outlook is reigniting debate across Wall Street and the digital-asset industry. The Bitwise chief investment officer has reiterated that bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million per coin, framing the asset less as a speculative trade and more as a competitor to gold in the global store-of-value market. The forecast arrives as bitcoin remains near historically elevated levels, institutional participation expands, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continue to shape mainstream access to the asset.
Why Matt Hougan Says Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million
The core of the “Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million by 2036” thesis is straightforward: if bitcoin captures a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market, its price could rise dramatically from current levels. According to The Block’s March 10, 2026 report, Hougan argued that the relevant market is not limited to crypto trading activity. Instead, he pointed to a global store-of-value market worth about $38 trillion, where gold remains the dominant benchmark.
According to Matt Hougan, bitcoin would need to capture roughly 17% of that market to reach $1 million per coin. That framing matters because it shifts the discussion away from short-term price swings and toward long-term asset allocation. In Hougan’s view, bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing acceptance make it increasingly comparable to gold as a strategic reserve asset rather than a purely speculative instrument.
This is not the first time Hougan has made an aggressive long-range call. The Block noted that in a 2023 memo he said bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2032, while more recent Bitwise research projected bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035. That suggests the firm’s broader research framework remains strongly bullish even as the exact timeline evolves.
The Market Context Behind the Forecast
Hougan’s forecast comes at a time when bitcoin has already moved far beyond its early-adoption phase. Bitwise, one of the issuers of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, has been operating in a market transformed by institutional access, regulatory progress, and broader investor familiarity. CoinDesk reported in February 2025 that Bitwise was among the firms benefiting from the opening created by U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which brought previously unseen institutional investment into the asset class.
That institutionalization is central to the bullish case. In August 2025, CoinDesk reported that Bitwise analysts projected bitcoin could climb to $1.3 million by 2035, driven by three major forces:
- institutional adoption,
- demand for inflation hedges, and
- bitcoin’s fixed supply.
The report said that Bitwise expects bitcoin to become one of the best-performing institutional assets over the next decade. It also estimated that the path to that target would imply a compound annual growth rate of 28.3%, a figure that underscores both the scale of the opportunity and the magnitude of the assumptions embedded in the forecast.
At the same time, Bitwise has not argued that the road would be smooth. The firm has cautioned that volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of bitcoin, even if market swings become less extreme than in earlier cycles. That caveat is important for investors weighing long-term upside against short-term drawdowns.
Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million by 2036 and the Gold Comparison
A central pillar of the “Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million by 2036” narrative is bitcoin’s comparison with gold. Gold has long served as a store of value for institutions, central banks, and households. Hougan’s argument is that bitcoin is increasingly competing for the same role, especially among investors seeking portability, scarcity, and resistance to monetary debasement.
According to Hougan, the question is not whether bitcoin replaces gold entirely. The more realistic scenario is that bitcoin captures a slice of the same market over time. If that happens, the upside could be substantial because bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, creating a scarcity profile that many advocates see as stronger than that of traditional hard assets.
This line of thinking is not unique to Bitwise. In June 2024, Bernstein said bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2033, showing that major financial research firms have also modeled seven-figure outcomes under bullish adoption scenarios. While the assumptions differ, the overlap is notable: both cases rely on expanding institutional ownership and bitcoin’s maturation into a macro asset.
What Supports the Bullish Case
Several developments support Hougan’s long-term thesis.
First, institutional access has improved sharply. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have lowered operational barriers for advisers, wealth managers, and institutions that previously avoided direct custody of digital assets. That has made bitcoin easier to buy, hold, and integrate into diversified portfolios.
Second, corporate adoption remains a growing theme. The Block reported in late 2024 that Hougan described corporate bitcoin buying as an “overlooked megatrend,” arguing that reduced reputational risk and a more supportive U.S. policy climate could expand the number of companies adding bitcoin to their balance sheets.
Third, bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule continues to shape the supply side of the market. Unlike fiat currencies, bitcoin’s total supply is capped, and new issuance declines over time. For bullish analysts, that means sustained demand growth can have an outsized effect on price.
Key drivers investors are watching
- ETF inflows and institutional allocation trends
- Corporate treasury adoption
- Inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty
- Regulatory clarity in the United States and other major markets
- Bitcoin’s continued positioning as “digital gold”
Risks and Skepticism Around the Forecast
Even with strong momentum, a $1 million bitcoin target remains highly controversial. Bitcoin is still a volatile asset, and its history includes sharp corrections, liquidity shocks, and sentiment-driven rallies. Bitwise itself has warned that steep drawdowns should still be expected, even in a maturing market.
There are also broader risks. Regulation can shift, political priorities can change, and institutional adoption may not progress in a straight line. Competition from other digital assets, changing macro conditions, or a prolonged risk-off environment could also slow bitcoin’s path toward the kind of market share Hougan envisions.
Skeptics also question whether bitcoin can truly rival gold at scale. Gold benefits from centuries of trust, deep liquidity, and central-bank ownership. Bitcoin, by contrast, remains relatively young and is still viewed by many conservative investors as a high-volatility alternative asset rather than a core store of value. That gap in perception remains one of the biggest hurdles to any seven-figure price target.
What the Forecast Means for Investors
For investors, the significance of the “Matt Hougan: Bitcoin Could Hit $1 Million by 2036” call lies less in the exact year and more in the framework behind it. Hougan is effectively arguing that bitcoin should be analyzed as a long-duration monetary asset with asymmetric upside if adoption continues. That is a different lens from short-term trading models focused on cycles, momentum, or halving-driven narratives.
The forecast also highlights a broader shift in crypto coverage. Instead of asking whether bitcoin survives, many institutional analysts are now debating how large its addressable market could become. That change alone marks a major evolution in how the asset is discussed in mainstream finance.
Still, long-term projections are not guarantees. A $1 million target depends on adoption, regulation, capital flows, and investor behavior over many years. For that reason, even bullish observers generally stress position sizing, risk management, and the possibility of severe interim declines.
Conclusion
Matt Hougan’s forecast that bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2036 adds fresh momentum to one of the market’s most closely watched long-term debates. His argument rests on bitcoin’s potential to capture a meaningful share of the global store-of-value market, particularly as it competes more directly with gold. Recent Bitwise research, institutional ETF adoption, and similar bullish projections from other firms show that the idea is no longer confined to crypto enthusiasts alone.
Whether bitcoin ultimately reaches that level remains uncertain. What is clear is that the asset is now being evaluated through a far broader financial lens than in previous cycles. If adoption continues and bitcoin strengthens its role as digital gold, Hougan’s bold forecast will remain central to the conversation about where the market could go next.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Matt Hougan?
Matt Hougan is the chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, a crypto-focused asset manager and issuer of a U.S. spot bitcoin ETF.
Did Matt Hougan really say bitcoin could hit $1 million?
Yes. The Block reported on March 10, 2026 that Hougan reiterated bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin.
What is the basis for the $1 million bitcoin forecast?
Hougan’s thesis is based on bitcoin capturing a portion of the global store-of-value market, which he said is about $38 trillion. He argued bitcoin would need roughly 17% of that market to reach $1 million.
Has Bitwise made similar forecasts before?
Yes. CoinDesk reported in August 2025 that Bitwise analysts projected bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035.
What are the biggest risks to this forecast?
The main risks include regulation, political shifts, slower-than-expected institutional adoption, competition from other assets, and bitcoin’s continued volatility.
Is this forecast a guarantee?
No. It is a long-term market outlook based on assumptions about adoption and capital flows, not a certainty. Even bullish analysts warn that bitcoin can experience major drawdowns along the way.
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