Key Points:
- Bitcoin hitting $200,000 in 2025 is unlikely, according to Glassnode’s lead analyst.
- Low trading volume and weak spot demand are now raising red flags for growth in the near term.
- Long-term predictions are still bullish, with several analysts targeting $200,000 by year’s end.
The idea of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 has stirred much debate over the last few years. Analysts have been optimistic so far, flooding the market with bullish predictions. But what does the actual data say?
Recent analysis has shown that the path might be more complicated. While many believe the milestone is possible within the next year, others argue that the momentum isn’t there yet.
One of the biggest voices of caution is James Check, the lead analyst at Glassnode. And here’s what he has to say.
Bitcoin Price to $200K?
The keyword “Bitcoin price to $200K” has become a buzzphrase among crypto enthusiasts. But Check says investors need to be realistic. “Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable,” he explained in a recent interview.
At the time of his remarks, Bitcoin was trading around $119,000. This means that for the price to hit $200,000 by year’s end, it needs to rise by nearly 100%.
This would require a massive surge in market cap. That he believes needs far more trading volume than the market currently shows.
Check added that Bitcoin cleared the $120,000 mark earlier in July. However, it’s only the beginning of a longer climb.
The road to $200,000 includes many resistance levels like $130K, $140K and beyond. Moreover, each level needs a price break and a solid foundation of volume and support.
Volume Is Missing, And That’s a Problem
One of the biggest challenges facing Bitcoin prices right now is trading volume. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume has turned negative again. This indicates that there are currently more sellers than buyers.
This lack of volume has been felt across regions. In the U.S., for example, the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed flat. Also, it is showing weak interest among American spot buyers.
Over in South Korea, the Korea Premium Index even turned negative. This means that Bitcoin is trading at a discount compared to current prices.
These factors all point to the same issue. Enthusiasm is fading, at least in the short term. Without strong buying pressure, the market may struggle to start or hold any moves upward.
Bulls Still in Control Near $115K
Despite the short-term issues, Bitcoin is still showing a great deal of strength. The cryptocurrency has managed to hold above $115,000, and buyers are absorbing sell pressure.
This liquidity zone between $112,000 and $115,000 has become a major battleground. There, buyers step in quickly when sell orders hit.
The question now is: Will a surge towards $200k ever happen? Many analysts are still convinced, even if this year isn’t the year for a $200,000 Bitcoin price.
For example, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, believes that institutional buying is creating a supply shock. The available supply is shrinking as more ETF investors stockpile Bitcoin into their portfolios.
This supply crunch could help drive higher prices in the next 12–18 months. The current year may fall short of bringing Bitcoin towards the $200,000 price level. However, the long-term still supports the bullish narrative.
